Blagojevich Statement Less Believable Than Michael Vick...More Believable Than Drew Peterson

/PRNewswire/ -- A new national study conducted among 313 self-reported Democrats, Republicans and Independents revealed that Governor Rod Blagojevich's speech on December 19 was slightly effective in gaining support from all parties, yet viewers were still uncertain of his believability.

Prior to viewing the speech, 66% of respondents reported that Blagojevich was guilty of the allegations regarding his office. The percentage dropped slightly (55%) after viewing Blagojevich's denial speech. In addition, prior to viewing the speech, 70% of respondents indicated that Blagojevich should step down from office, compared to 54% after viewing the speech.

Although viewers slightly increased their support for Blagojevich, when asked to rate him on scales of likeability, believability and sincerity, his believability scored significantly lower than the other categories.

The study was conducted by HCD Research on December 22 to obtain Americans' perceptions of a speech by Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich, on December 19, in which he denies guilt and vows to fight charges regarding his alleged scheme to sell President-elect Barack Obama's Senate seat. To view believability curves and detailed results go to: www.mediacurves.com.

While viewing the video clip, participants indicated their levels of believability by moving their mouse from left to right on a continuum. The responses were recorded in quarter-second intervals and reported in the form of curves. The participants were also asked pre and post-viewing questions.

The believability curves that were generated for Blagojevich's denial speech were compared to believability curves from previous studies conducted by HCD Research, which focused on statements from prominent figures in the media who were accused of or connected to alleged criminal activity. Below is a comparison of how Blagojevich ranks among other subjects of past studies (the higher the number, the more believable they were):

Believability Scores


Andy Petitte 61.6
Gov Spitzer 51.2
Michael Vick 47.8
Senator Craig 47.7
Gov Blagojevich 44.3
Drew Peterson 42.6
Paris Hilton 39.2


Governor Blagojevich, with a believability score of 44.3, was considered more believable than Drew Peterson and Paris Hilton and less believable than Andy Petitte, Governor Elliot Spitzer, Michael Vick and Senator Larry Craig.

Among the findings:

"Do you think Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich is guilty of the crimes he is being accused of?"

BEFORE Watching Speech

Total Democrats Republicans Independents
Yes 66% 67% 63% 68%
No 3% 1% 4% 3%
Not sure 32% 32% 34% 29%


AFTER Watching Speech

Total Democrats Republicans Independents
Yes 55% 53% 54% 58%
No 5% 5% 6% 5%
Not sure 40% 42% 40% 37%


"Do you think Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich should step down from office?"

BEFORE Watching Speech

Total Democrats Republicans Independents
Yes 70% 69% 71% 69%
No 7% 7% 6% 8%
Not sure 24% 25% 23% 23%


AFTER Watching Speech

Total Democrats Republicans Independents
Yes 54% 53% 54% 56%
No 16% 19% 15% 14%
Not sure 30% 28% 31% 30%


"Do you think the public should withhold judgment of Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich until he is proven guilty or innocent of these crimes?"

BEFORE Watching Speech

Total Democrats Republicans Independents
Yes 52% 55% 56% 47%
No 27% 24% 26% 32%
Not sure 20% 22% 18% 21%


AFTER Watching Speech

Total Democrats Republicans Independents
Yes 61% 68% 61% 54%
No 23% 18% 22% 29%
Not sure 16% 14% 17% 17%